Stocks are starting to price in a Trump victory, possibly even a Republican sweep, according to JPMorgan. The recent rally in U.S. equities to all-time highs, and the outperformance of U.S. banks in particular, are among the signs that investors are betting on former President Donald Trump to win the November general election, and follows a similar pattern from 2016, the bank’s cross market strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou wrote Wednesday. Take a look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average , which recently cleared the 43,000 milestone for the first time ever, or the S & P 500 , which surpassed 5,800. Meanwhile, U.S. banks, which are expected to face less regulatory scrutiny from Trump than under the Biden administration, have rallied. The SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF (KRE), has advanced 5.9% this month alone, and financials are the top-performing S & P 500 sector this month. Similar signs are also appearing in other parts of the market. The U.S. Dollar Index has risen to its highest level since August. Treasury yields are on the ascent, with the 10-year yield topping 4%. “Markets have now begun to price in the Trump trade,” London-based Panigirtzoglou wrote. KRE 1M mountain SPDR S & P Regional Banking ETF over the past month. To be sure, the recent moves in banks, the dollar and in bond yields are more modest than in 2016, according to Panigirtzoglou. “Since the 3-month pre-election window began at the beginning of August we have seen so far relatively modest moves: flat 5y UST yields , 1% weaker DXY, 2.5% outperformance of U.S. vs non-U.S. equities, 2% outperformance of U.S. banks vs. the SPX and 15bp tighter credit spreads,” Panigirtzoglou wrote. “This implies significantly higher probability of a Trump win relative to two weeks ago when we had noted 60bp lower 5y UST yields , weaker DXY by around 3%, flattish U.S. vs non- U.S. equities, underperformance of U.S. banks and flattish credit spreads.” “But still a long way from fully pricing the 2016 experience (100bp increase in 5y UST yields , 8% cumulative increase in DXY, 6% outperformance of U.S. vs non-U.S. equities, 15% outperformance of U.S. banks vs the S & P 500 index, and 40bp tighter US HG corporate credit spreads),” he added. At the same time, a Republican sweep of both chambers of Congress as well as the White House, while not yet priced fully into the market, would be expected to eventually support bitcoin as well as gold prices, he said. .DXY 1M mountain U.S. Dollar Index over the past month.
link